On the eve of Apple's "Spring Forward" event, I thought it would be worthwhile to revisit Robert Cringely's prediction for 2015 as the year "when nothing happened" and, particularly, his take on the significance and reception of the Apple Watch:
The Apple Watch is Cupertino grabbing mindshare and early adopter wallets, nothing else.
Even those who are typically bullish on Apple seem to be restraining their enthusiasm and predictions of massive success for the Apple Watch. All except the stock market itself, with AAPL up over 14% YTD. The naysayers are hedging a bit too. If you widen the view on Cringely's comment, he isn't exactly dismissing the Apple Watch to the dustbin of history, instead pointing to 2016 as the year to watch.
I am hopeful he's wrong. I personally find even the most fanciful aspects of the Apple Watch experience intriguing, at least as they have been described up to this point, and applaud Apple for the tact they have taken as they methodically enter the nascent wearables market. I expect many recent enhancements to the iOS experience like Touch ID and the application extensions framework will be all the more relevant once the Watch is in the wild.
Critically, though, unlike the release of the iPhone in 2007, there isn't an obvious problem begging to be simplified and redefined. We aren't dissatisfied with our time pieces in the same way that so-called smartphones left much to be desired eight years ago. The Apple Watch is a much harder sell because of this; it is trying to extend, and ideally in many situations, replace the iPhone experience itself (which obviously is a bit thorny for Apple, though they have been famously comfortable with product cannibalization before) rather than displace something already taking up space on everyone's wrist.
Will the convenience and attempt at a kind of naturalness by situating tech on your arm rather than in your pocket, be as obvious when we look back on 2015 as portable touch screens appear now, when we reflect on the dark ages of 2006?
It might just come down to the distillation Apple is promising with the interface elements pictured in the photo above: the new pressure-sensitive screen, the much-fetishized Digital Crown, and, simply, the Button. While much has been written recently about the attention Apple is paying to the fashion-related aspects of the Apple Watch (e.g., luxury options, extensive customization compared to previous products), perhaps the obviousness and must-haveness of the device will emerge in its everyday use, where routine things will get done faster and information will be transmitted with less friction and without the encumbrances of even the most modern of smartphone interactions. And that is to say nothing of the integration of Apple's Siri personal assistant and speech recognition tech, which Tim Cook boasts using "all the time". Will Apple Watch be Siri's debutante coming-of-age?
One thing is certain: as my father-in-law reminded me tonight, given Apple's recent history, it would be foolhardy to categorically dismiss anything they aspire to do with the Apple Watch. For perhaps the first time in the company's history, it seems Apple has earned the benefit of the doubt.